lørdag, oktober 27, 2012

Tyskland mangler gull

Tidligere skrev jeg om Hugo Chavez sin tilbaketrekning av gullreservene ifra London, spesifikt LBMA og Bank of England. Dette var meget relevant ettersom Chavez skulle ha gjort dette samtidig som han sa det var et angrep mot dollaren (som ikke ble rapportert av noen av de norske mediene).

Dette, altså tilstanden og eksistensen av noterte gullreserver, har nå blitt et emne imellom vestlige makter og det kan gjøre at papirpengers kollaps går raskere. Det som har foregått er at i balansen(type regnskap) hvor sentralbanker registrerer hva og hvor mange eiendeler de har, så har simpelthen skrevet at de eier en visse mengde gull uten å avklare i hvilket format. Gull som er lånt ut, er ikke den samme eiendelen som gull i hvelvet til sentralbanken. Den tyske stat er den største gulleieren som nå offentlig ytrer sin bekymring over dens tilstanden.

Der Spiegel(Via ZeroHedge) påpekte noe interessant i denne sammenhengen:

"The Court recommends that the Bundesbank to negotiate with three foreign central banks the right to physical verification of stocks. With the implementation of this recommendation, the Bundesbank has begun according to the report. They also decided to bring in the next three years to 50 tons each of the past at the Fed in New York gold to Germany to get it here to undergo a thorough examination."

Nå hvis de må forhandle seg frem til og få gullet deres, og det over 3 år. Hva sier det om tilstanden til disse gullreservene ?

Lars Schall er en tysk journalist som har arbeidet med dette en stund og dette var en grei oppsummering:

lørdag, oktober 13, 2012

Økonomien bak Fredsprisens politiske spill

It is also worth noting how the EU has completely centralized foreign policy in Europe, as was intended, making it even easier for it to follow the lead of Washington DC. Thus while the economic crisis raged in Europe, Brussels under direction of the US was able to force a blockade of Iranian oil on its member countries which probably would have been impossible to impose on all countries whilst undergoing economic hardship. This blockade has lead to an even worsened relationship between Iran and the West, and the Iranian fiat currency has experienced a depreciation of over 72 % since 2011.

It is hilarious but perhaps not a coincidence that the Prize is given during the EUs biggest economic and political crisis. People and even local “fringe” politicians in for example Netherlands, Greece, Germany increasingly doubt the feasibility and desirability of the Euro and the European Union. The announcement came a day after another PIIGS country(Spain) was downgraded by S&P and was earlier downgraded in June by Moodys even with guarantees of endless monetary inflation by Mario Draghi, head of ECB. As Bagus makes a clear case for in the “Tragedy of the Euro”, and even mainstream economists claim although on the erroneous basis of “Optimum currency area” idea, the Euro is cause of the crisis. It has amplified the ability for governments to run deficits, for credit expansion (the cause of booms and busts) to become even bigger in the wrong areas.

The similarity with the Osama announcement is striking, in April and May 2011 a lot of prominent investors like Bill Gross, were becoming overly bearish on the US economy and its seemingly inevitable government debt crisis. As gold went up 16 % in three months, silver up 48 % in three months and oil 22 % in three months, Obama came on television and announced the assassination of Osama and 54 days later announced oil sales from emergency stock after indicating the measure in april. Concerning Osama they had supposedly murdered him, and then dumped him in the sea claiming that it was “in accordance with Islamic practices”. The dollar bounced back, but only for a short period.

If a positive market reaction, was the aim of this announcement it has already come as the Euro has risen against major currencies(USD falling 3 % against the Euro) , precious metals(gold in Euros falling 5 %, silver down 8 %) and it will probably not last very long.

On the political commentary someone else handles this:

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